Forecast For Abersoch : Wednesday 17th April, 2024 - Issued at 7.30am by Chas

Headline Summary: Chance Of Showers.

Bore da - Good morning from Abersoch... after a bright and breezy day yesterday, we may see more in the way cloud at times today and it does look a bit of a shower lottery again. The latest precipitation radar images show showers currently affecting the far eastern end of the peninsula.

Clearer skies tonight, along with lighter winds, may result in temperatures falling close to grass frost levels and then we have a weather system affecting the northwest of the UK tomorrow, which may intoduce plenty of cloud into our area, but we should be to the south of most of any wet weather. Thereafter, a cold front is expected to move down across the area on Thursday night, with high pressure then becoming dominant for a few days. At the moment, the weekend is looking like being mostly sunny, which should bring a noticeably warmer feel, though overnight temperatures will be cold...

Today: Wednesday: Strong north-northwesterlies early in the day, perhaps gusting to gale for a time, with a mix of variable amounts of cloud, brighter intervals and perhaps a shower or two knocking about the area. Generally more in the way of cloud for the afternoon with the shower risk increasing, but it does look like being a lottery scenario, so some uncertainty regarding the extent and duration of any showery spells. The shower risk should lower during the evening. Winds easing during the afternoon and evening. Temperatures may only reach 10c during the daytime. Cold overnight with perhaps a touch of frost in some spots.

Thursday: A bright but chilly start to the morning, with some sunshine. Cloudier for the afternoon, with perhaps some light showers. A cold front may bring showers for a time overnight. Winds from a westerly quarter during the day, increasing in strength, with strong northwesterlies overnight.

Friday: Strong northwesterly winds and potentially dry with some sunshine arriving after a cloudy start. Chance of some decent spells of sunshine for the afternoon and evening, with sheltered spots doing OK for warmth. Winds easing later. Clear and cold overnight.

Saturday: Mostly fine with sunny spells and patchy cloud. Long sunny spells are possible for the afternoon and evening. Potentially a breeze from a northerly quarter, but there is a reasonable chance of a noticeably warmer feel for the afternoon period. Cold overnight.

Sunday: Fine and mostly sunny. Light winds at times, so feeling warm. Perhaps a breeze with a northerly element picking up later.

Outlook: High pressure may continue to dominate on Monday and Tuesday, so potentially mostly fine, though we may see more of a breeze from between the north and east. High level of uncertainty by the time we get to Wednesday.

Extended Outlook: The outlook for the period from Thursday 25th April to Monday 29th April ... is up in the air again this morning, with the models chopping and changing regarding the position of high pressure, so various options are still on the table.

Charts below are a snapshot from the major models. Note that anything beyond about 5 days is pretty speculative - so treat all extended charts with caution...

GFS at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr		UKMO at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr		ECMWF at 144hrs copyright Meteociel.fr

GFS at 192hrs copyright Meteociel.fr				ECMWF at 192hrs copyright Meteociel.fr

GFS at 10 days copyright Meteociel.fr				ECMWF at 10 days copyright Meteociel.fr

For more info on the outlook from the professionals, the Met Office extended 6 to 30 day outlooks are generally very useful and are updated daily. They can can be found on this link here.

Tweets by abersochdotco  

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Useful Weather Forecasting Links:

Met Office Website: www.metoffice.com

BBC Weather: http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/

Wund Guru For Abersoch (Uses GFS Global): www.windguru.com/int/index.php?sc=47846

UK Wind Map / XC Weather (Uses GFS Model) : www.xcweather.co.uk

Magic Seaweed (Uses GFS Model): www.magicseaweed.com

Meteociel: Links to the Global Weather Models: www.meteociel.com

Netweather: Forecasts, links and busy online community: www.netweather.tv

Weatheronline: Useful forecasting resource: www.weatheronline.co.uk