SPC AC 302006

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

   Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   PERMIAN BASIN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size,
   damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected
   this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other
   isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well
   as the central Plains to Upper Midwest.

   Expanded the marginal/slight risk farther west into New Mexico and
   shifted the enhanced south in West Texas based on the continued
   west-southward movement of the outflow boundary. Strong heating is
   allowing moderate to strong destabilization north of this boundary
   with remnant low 60s dewpoints. Therefore, additional strong to
   severe storms are likely north of this boundary. However, the
   greater severe coverage and threat should be along and near the
   outflow boundary. See MCD #1079 and #1080 for additional information
   regarding the storm threat from southwest Kansas to the Texas Big
   Bend.

   Made a slight northward adjustment to the marginal risk across
   eastern South Dakota based on the location of the current synoptic
   front and thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms remain
   likely. See MCD #1081 for additional discussion about the threat in
   this area.

   ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/

   ...Southern Plains...
   Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern
   Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing
   complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated
   severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along
   outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the
   region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across
   south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull,
   storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across
   the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related
   damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional
   severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75
   inches in diameter.

   Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread
   southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe
   storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad
   north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle
   southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the
   aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely
   be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm
   development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and
   Big Country.

   Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse
   rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells
   with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the
   aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The
   southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential
   to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a
   couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of
   somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual
   outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is
   expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail
   continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress
   generally southeastward into central/north Texas.

   ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska...
   Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning
   in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding
   the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk
   later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in
   cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization
   for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within
   multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are
   expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be
   relatively weak.

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